As an Appetizer:
Gallup has announced it will stop measuring presidential approval after 88 years, calling the move part of a broader effort to align its work with its mission. The decision has sparked skepticism, with some critics suggesting political pressure from the Trump administration. I argue the poll has become increasingly irrelevant in today’s hyperpartisan political climate, where a nearly even partisan divide makes approval ratings predictable and less reflective of objective public opinion. With voters largely entrenched along party lines, presidents are unlikely to see approval ratings rise much above the mid-50s regardless of performance, except in cases of severe failure.
As the Main Course:
Staff writer Dominick Mastrangelo of THE HILL reports today that Gallup will no longer measure presidential approval after doing so for 88 years. This is a huge announcement. Gallup said the change is “part of a broader, ongoing effort to align all of Gallup’s public work with its mission.”
Yet, when the first line on Gallup’s “About Us” web page states “Helping People Be Heard,” it sounds a bit suspicious that one of its longest-running, most widely-followed, and internationally-published polls doesn’t fit that mission.
Many reader comments of the article voiced skepticism of Gallup’s reasoning, writing that it is because of pressure from the White House. They wrote that Gallup was falling in line with other media outlets that are caving to pressure (lawsuits?) from the Trump Administration’s efforts to clamp down on news media that report negative news about the president –real or editorial. When asked about this, a Gallup spokesperson stated the reason is due to “a strategic shift solely based on Gallup’s research goals and priorities.”
Happy trails. It’s a survey with predictable results that doesn’t yield any useful data unless it shows extreme negative ratings towards a president (more on this later). My question challenging its usefulness is based on today’s political environment and a growing hyperpartisan society.
Registered voters are split almost evenly between the two major parties, with independent voters divided about the same regarding the two parties’ polarized ideologies (Dem 45/Rep 46). Reinforced by politically-biased news media, voting-along-party-line partisan elected government officials, and mis- and disinfomred family and peers, when asked their opinion of a sitting president, can we expect to get an objective picture of public opinion of the U.S. president these days?
So what good is the Gallup Presidential Approval poll anymore? For years, I have cited the poll in my American Government classes at FGCU. However, I question its validity as an education tool, except for using it to showcase America’s growing chasm between the two political parties and their ideologies. My theory, or perhaps my suggestion, is that the survey has become irrelevant.
Due to the close 50-50 split of registered voters and partisan ideologies between them, we will no longer see presidents achieving above a 55% approval rating +/- a few points, even when they are performing well. A mediocre score has become predictable except when their performance is bad. Trump’s Gallup approval rating of 36 as of last December was among the lowest the organization had found since it began taking the poll in the 1930s.
So the timing of Gallup’s decision may be that they see the same writing on the wall. This may be a proactive move on their part, realizing what is happening with their survey, public opinion, and Trump’s presidency. Or they are being reactive, already hearing criticism from the current Administration.
If Gallup just stated the real reason for cancelling the survey is that it’s become useless due to the current political environment, that would make more sense. But, they didn’t. Halting the survey due to “a strategic shift” based on research goals and priorities sounds more like a decision based on self-interest and preservation.